Evaluation of Iran northwestern provinces considering economic indices by VIKOR Model

Document Type : Scientific Research

Author

M.s. Landscaping Planning, Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran.Tehran.iran

Abstract

< p >Achieving development, although today is clearly one of the sweetest and most unattainable aspirations of many countries in the world, but the idea of ​​progress and the ways to achieve it, has a long history and during different periods of human life, Different societies, especially the rival ones, have always tried to achieve the latest methods and tools for mastering nature and making better and more efficient use of its facilities in order to expand their power and abilities. The purpose of this article is to achieve the relative superiority of each province by evaluating the dominant economic indicators. For this purpose, first, using the Shannon entropy method, each of the 11 economic indicators was weighed, then in order to achieve the research results, using the data available in the Statistics Center and using the multi-criteria decision-making technique (VIKOR) for the data. In 2016, an analysis was made. According to the purpose of the research, which is to evaluate the northwestern provinces of Iran in terms of dominant economic indicators with the Vikor model, five provinces of East Azerbaijan, Western Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan and Kurdistan were studied. In this regard, Excel software has been used to calculate quantitative data in different stages of the model and Arc GIS10.3 software has been used to draw the map of the level of provinces. The results show that the provinces of West Azerbaijan have the lowest numerical value of the Vikor index equal to 0.180 in the highest rank and East Azerbaijan with the value of the index 0.5 in the second rank and the provinces of Ardabil, Kurdistan and Zanjan due to the desired value. The index numbers are 0.978, 0.984 and 1, respectively, in the third to fifth ranks.

Highlights

Extended Abstract

Introduction

Achieving and achieving development, although today is clearly one of the sweetest and most unattainable aspirations of many countries in the world, but the idea of ​​progress and the ways to achieve it, has a long history and during different periods of human life, Different societies, especially the rival ones, have always tried to achieve the latest methods and tools for mastering nature and making better and more efficient use of its facilities in order to expand their power and abilities. The purpose of this article is to achieve the relative superiority of each province by evaluating the dominant economic indicators. For this purpose, first, using the Shannon entropy method, each of the 11 economic indicators was weighed, then in order to achieve the research results, using the data available in the Statistics Center and using the multi-criteria decision-making technique (VIKOR) for the data. In 2016, an analysis was made. According to the purpose of the research, which is to evaluate the northwestern provinces of Iran in terms of dominant economic indicators with the Vikor model, five provinces of East Azerbaijan, Western Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan and Kurdistan were studied. In this regard, Excel software has been used to calculate quantitative data in different stages of the model and Arc GIS10.3 software has been used to draw the map of the level of provinces. The results show that the provinces of West Azerbaijan have the lowest numerical value of the Vikor index equal to 0.180 in the highest rank and East Azerbaijan with the value of the index 0.5 in the second rank and the provinces of Ardabil, Kurdistan and Zanjan due to the desired value. The index numbers are 0.978, 0.984 and 1, respectively, in the third to fifth ranks.

 

Materials and Methods

The approach of the present study is quantitative research and in terms of data collection method is based on library-documentary data and by referring to the Statistics Center of Iran and receiving data from the relevant offices, which has been done descriptively-analytically. First, the relevant indicators were identified and then the share of each of the provinces was extracted. Due to the unequal importance of the indicators, the weight of these indicators was determined through the Shannon entropy model. In the next step, the VIKOR model was used to evaluate the provinces. This method prioritizes or ranks options by evaluating options based on indicators. In the end, appropriate solutions have been presented based on the obtained outputs and results. Excel software has been used to calculate quantitative data in different stages of the model and Arc GIS10.3 software has been used to prepare the map.

 

 

Results and Discussion

Indicators used: In this article, 11 important economic indicators in 2016 have been used to identify the share of the studied provinces. The indicators used in this study according to Table 1 are:

 

Table 1. Dominant economic indicators

Dominant economic indicators

X1: Men''s Economic Participation Rate (Population Office, Labor and Census)

X2: Women''s Economic Participation Rate (Population Office, Labor and Census)

X3: The ratio of employees in the industrial sector to the total number of employees (population office, labor force and census)

X4: The ratio of employees in the agricultural sector to the total number of employees (population office, labor force and census)

X5: The ratio of employees in the transportation sector to the total number of employees (population office, labor force and census)

X6: Percentage of employees in the construction sector compared to the total number of employees (population office, labor force and census)

X7: Percentage of the province''s share in GDP (Office of Economic Accounts)

X8: Percentage of value added in industry (Economic Accounts Office)

X9: Percentage of value added in the education sector (Economic Accounts Office)

X10: Percentage of value added in the health sector (Economic Accounts Office)

X11: Percentage of value added in the mining sector (Economic Accounts Office)

 

The Vikor method prioritizes or ranks options by evaluating options based on criteria. In the Vikor technique, the criteria are not weighed, but the criteria are evaluated by other methods, and then the options are evaluated and ranked based on the criteria and combined with the value of the criteria.After collecting the data through the available statistics and converting them to the desired indicators, the raw data matrix of each indicator was defined in the study area. The decision matrix consists of options (rows) and indicators (columns). Our options are the northwestern provinces of Iran, and the indicators are 11, which were mentioned in Table 1 and coded (X1 to X11). After forming the decision matrix, normalize this matrix,Each issue may have several indicators that it is necessary to know the relative importance of the indicators, so each index is given a weight that these weights determine the relative importance of each index compared to other indicators. Entropy was used to evaluate the weights of the indicators in this case. After calculating the normalized matrix and the weighted matrix and extracting the highest and lowest values for each index in order to calculate the Vikor index according to which to rank the options, calculate the value of Sj (desirability index) and Rj (regret index). Also, at this stage, the Vikor index, which is the final score of each option, was calculated. The value of Q indicates the final rank of each province from the total of 11 indicators studied. This value is determined between zero and one, and the closer it is to zero, the more desirable and developed it is, and the closer it is to one, the less developed.The ranking was based on the value of Q, so that the lowest value is the highest priority. The calculated average for Q in the 5 provinces studied was 0.728, indicating that the overall level of development in the northwestern provinces is above average. As Table 8 shows, based on the amount of Q in terms of economic indicators, West Azerbaijan Province is ranked 1st and Zanjan Province is ranked last.

 

Conclusions

In this paper, the degree of development of the northwestern provinces of the country from different dimensions was evaluated. In this study, concepts such as the level of development of a province showed the level of development of that province was one of the indicators on the basis of which the level of development of the provinces was assessed and we have named them as economic indicators. Therefore, the provinces that have benefited the most from these indicators, as developed, and the provinces that have less values ​​of these indicators and have a greater distance from the developed province, are in the line of underdevelopment. Have. Using data collected in the form of 11 indicators and based on the VIKOR model, the research results show that the northwestern provinces of Iran differ from each other in terms of level of development. So that the provinces of West Azerbaijan are in the first place, East Azerbaijan is in the second place, Ardabil is in the third place, Kurdistan is in the fourth place and Zanjan is in the fifth place.

Keywords

Main Subjects


چکیده مبسوط فارسی

مقدمه

دست یابی و نیل به توسعه، اگرچه امروز به طور مشخص، یکی از آمال و آرزوهای شیرین و دور از دسترس بسیاری از کشورهای جهان می باشد، اما اندیشه پیشرفت و راههای تحقق آن، قدمتی طولانی دارد و در طی دوره های مختلف حیات بشری، جوامع مختلف و به خصوص رقیب، همواره در تلاش بوده اند که برای بسط قدرت و توانایی های خویش، به جدیدترین شیوه ها و ابزارهای تسلط بر طبیعت و استفاده بهتر و کاراتر از امکانات آن دست یابند. هدف این مقاله دستیابی به برتری نسبی هر استان از طریق ارزیابی شاخص های غالب اقتصادی است. بدین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از روش آنتروپی شانون به وزن دهی هر یک از 11 شاخص اقتصادی پرداخته، سپس به منظور دستیابی به نتایج تحقیق، با استفاده از داده های موجود در مرکز آمار و استفاده از تکنیک تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره (VIKOR) برای داده های سال 1395 تحلیلی صورت گرفته است. با توجه به هدف تحقیق که ارزیابی استانهای شمال غربی ایران از لحاظ شاخص های غالب اقتصادی با مدل ویکور می باشد پنج استان آذربایجان شرقی، آذربایجان غربی، اردبیل، زنجان و کردستان مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. در این راستا برای محاسبه داده های کمی در مراحل مختلف مدل از نرم افزار Excel و برای ترسیم نقشه ی سطح برخورداری استانها از نرم افزارArc GIS10.3 استفاده شده است. نتایج نیز با توجه به شاخص های مورد نظر نشان می دهد که استان های آذربایجان غربی به دلیل داشتن کمترین مقدار عددی شاخص ویکور معادل 0.180 در بالاترین رتبه و آذربایجان شرقی با مقدار شاخص 0.5 در رتبه دوم و استان های اردبیل ، کردستان و زنجان با مقدار عددی شاخص به ترتیب معادل 0.978، 0.984 و 1 در رتبه های سوم تا پنجم قرار دارند.

 

 

 

 

 

 مواد و روش ها

رویکرد پژوهش حاضر از نوع پژوهش های کمی و از نظر شیوه گردآوری داده ها مبتنی بر داده های کتابخانه ای-اسنادی و با مراجعه به مرکز آمار ایران و دریافت داده ها از دفاتر مربوطه می باشد که بصورت توصیفی- تحلیلی انجام گرفته است. در ابتدا شاخص های مرتبط را شناسایی و سپس سهم هر یک از استانها استخراج گردید. با توجه به یکسان نبودن اهمیت شاخص ها، از طریق مدل آنتروپی شانون وزن این شاخص ها تعیین گردید. در مرحله بعد جهت ارزیابی استانها مدل ویکور(VIKOR) به کار گرفته شد. این روش از طریق ارزیابی گزینه ها بر اساس شاخص ها، گزینه ها را اولویت بندی یا رتبه بندی می کنند. در انتها بر مبنای خروجی ها و نتایج بدست آمده راهکارهای مناسب ارایه گردیده است. برای محاسبه داده های کمی در مراحل مختلف مدل از نرم افزار Excel و برای تهیه نقشه از نرم افزار Arc GIS10.3 استفاده گردیده است.

 

بحث و یافته ها

شاخص های مورد استفاده: در این مقاله برای شناسایی سهم استانهای مورد بررسی از 11 شاخص مهم اقتصادی در سال 1395 استفاده شده است. شاخص های مورد استفاده در این پژوهش طبق جدول شماره 1 عبارتنداز:

جدول 1-شاخص های غالب اقتصادی

شاخص های غالب اقتصادی

X1: نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی مردان(دفتر جمعیت، نیروی کار و سرشماری)

X2: نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی زنان(دفتر جمعیت، نیروی کار و سرشماری)

X3: نسبت شاغلان در بخش صنعت به کل شاغلین(دفتر جمعیت، نیروی کار و سرشماری)

X4: نسبت شاغلان در بخش کشاورزی به کل شاغلین(دفتر جمعیت، نیروی کار و سرشماری)

X5: نسبت شاغلان در بخش حمل و نقل به کل شاغلین(دفتر جمعیت، نیروی کار و سرشماری)

X6: درصد شاغلان بخش ساختمان نسبت به کل شاغلین(دفتر جمعیت، نیروی کار و سرشماری)

X7:درصد سهم استان در محصول ناخالص داخلی(دفتر حساب های اقتصادی)

X8: درصد سهم ارزش افزوده در بخش صنعت (دفتر حساب های اقتصادی)

X9: درصد سهم ارزش افزوده در بخش آموزش(دفتر حساب های اقتصادی)

X10:درصد سهم ارزش افزوده در بخش بهداشت(دفتر حساب های اقتصادی)

X11: درصد سهم ارزش افزوده در بخش معدن (دفتر حساب های اقتصادی)

مرکز آمار ایران، 1395

روش ویکور از طریق ارزیابی گزینه ها براساس معیارها، گزینه ها را اولویت بندی یا رتبه بندی می کند. در تکنیک ویکور معیارها وزن دهی نمی شوند بلکه معیارها از طریق روش های دیگر ارزیابی می شود و سپس گزینه ها براساس معیارها و با ترکیب در ارزش معیارها، ارزیابی شده و رتبه بندی می شوند. پس از جمع آوری داده ها از طریق آمارهای موجود و تبدیل آنها به شاخص های مورد نظر، ماتریس داده های خام هریک از شاخص ها در محدوده ی مورد مطالعه تعریف شد. ماتریس تصمیم گیری که متشکل از گزینه ها(سطرها) و شاخص ها(ستون ها) است. گزینه های ما استانهای شمال غربی ایران می باشد و شاخص ها 11 مورد هستند که در جدول شماره 1 به آنها اشاره شد و کدگذاری گردیدند(X1تاX11). پس از تشکیل ماتریس تصمیم گیری، نرمال سازی این ماتریس است. هر مسأله ای ممکن است دارای چندین شاخص باشد که دانستن اهمیت نسبی شاخص ها ضرورت دارد، از این رو به هر شاخص یک وزن داده می شود که این وزن ها اهمیت نسبی هر شاخص را نسبت به سایر شاخص ها مشخص می کند، برای ارزیابی اوزان شاخص ها از روش آنتروپی استفاده شده است. پس از محاسبه ماتریس نرمالیزه شده و ماتریس وزن دار و استخراج بالاترین و پایین ترین ارزش برای هر شاخص به منظور محاسبه شاخص ویکور که براساس آن به رتبه بندی گزینه ها بپردازیم ارزش Sj(شاخص مطلوبیت) و Rj (شاخص تأسف) محاسبه گردید و همینطور در این مرحله شاخص ویکور که همان امتیاز نهایی هر گزینه است محاسبه شد، مقدار Q بیانگر رتبه نهایی هر استان از مجموع 11 شاخص مورد مطالعه است. این مقدار بین عدد صفر تا یک تعیین می شود و هرچه به عدد صفر نزدیکتر باشد نشان دهنده مطلوبیت و توسعه یافتگی و هرچه به عدد یک نزدیکتر باشد نمایانگر توسعه نیافتگی است. رتبه بندی براساس ارزش Q صورت گرفت به گونه ای که کمترین ارزش بالاترین اولویت را به خود اختصاص داده است. میانگین محاسبه شده برای Q در 5 استان مورد مطالعه برابر با 0.728 به دست آمد که نشان می دهد در مجموع سطح توسعه یافتگی در استانهای شمال غربی بالاتر از حد متوسط است. براساس مقدار Q از نظر شاخص های اقتصادی، استان آذربایجان غربی در رتبه 1 و  استان زنجان در رتبه آخر قرار دارد.

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